Mufasa may tell the origin story of The Lion King, but it won’t rule the box office in its opening weekend – according to early box office projections, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will open at number one.
Cast your mind back to 2019 when SEGA and Paramount Pictures unveiled the first trailer for their live-action Sonic movie. It was a disaster, entirely due to the titular character’s horrifically uncanny, humanoid design.
Months later, the studios returned with a new trailer and a revamped Sonic, and it was welcomed with open arms. The first film defied the video game movie curse and became an unexpected hit, earning positive reviews and more than $320 million worldwide. Its sequel (an even better movie) hit cinemas as they were closing their doors under global restrictions, and it still made over $400 million.
In other words, people love the blue blur, and Sonic 3 is poised to be the franchise’s biggest success to date – even with competition from Disney.
Sonic 3 box office to open at number one
Sonic 3 is currently tracking ahead of Mufasa at the box office, set to debut with $55 million in its opening weekend compared to $50 million for The Lion King prequel.
That is an extraordinary feat for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Disney’s first live-action Lion King wasn’t just a hit – it’s one of the highest-grossing movies of all time. It opened with $191 million in the US alone, with a global haul of $466 million in its first weekend.
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The fact that Sonic 3 is even in the same conversation as a new live-action Disney film (they are consistent performers; Aladdin made $1.05 billion, Cruella made $230 million in 2021, and The Little Mermaid made nearly $570 million) is an achievement in itself.
'SONIC 3' is tracking to earn $55M domestically for its opening weekend'MUFASA: THE LION KING' which releases the same day, is tracking to earn $50M (via: Deadline) pic.twitter.com/mNI0smDcu1
— ScreenTime (@screentime) November 27, 2024
It also illustrates the hype among Sonic fans and wider audiences for Sonic 3. The first film opened with $58 million, while Sonic 2 opened with $72 million.
Yes, those numbers may be higher than Sonic 3’s projections, but the threequel is also dropping in one of the most competitive theatrical slates of 2024. Not only does it have to contend with Mufasa, but Moana 2 will maintain sales through the holidays, Wicked will keep filling screens, and Kraven the Hunter and Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim both drop the week before.
However, a note of caution: Disney will ramp up its marketing campaign for Mufasa after Moana 2’s wide release, so it could overtake Sonic 3 in the coming weeks.
Sonic 3 and Mufasa both premiere on December 20. Until then, check out the new Sonic 3 trailer (which gave Shadow fans what they’ve been waiting for), and our prediction for which character will show up at the end of Sonic 3.
